- Title
- Identifying the existence of any periodicity in flooding
- Creator
- McMahon, G. M.; Kiem, Anthony S.
- Relation
- 38th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (HWRS 2018). 2018 Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, HWRS 2018: Water and Communities (Melbourne 3-6 December, 2018) p. 536-546
- Relation
- https://hwrs.com.au/
- Publisher
- Engineers Australia
- Resource Type
- conference paper
- Date
- 2018
- Description
- This paper looks at the factors that raise or diminish the visibility of periodicity and / or the misperceptions of periodicity in floods (and rainfalls) for particular rainfall mechanisms. The factors are drawn from research into the hydrology of South East Queensland (SEQ) Australia (McMahon and Kiem, 2018a, 2018b) that provided information showing that flooding (and rainfall) in SEQ may not be random and may not be identically and independently distributed (i.i.d). That research has determined that large floods and rainfalls in SEQ may be 80% to 120% greater within periods when the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is negative than when IPO is positive, and identified the possibility that floods (and rainfalls) may have a periodicity of 40±2.5 years from one particular rainfall mechanism. Guidelines for detecting the possibility of periodicity in existing flood records in other regions are offered here. The benefit of this work is that without current assumptions and practices that ignore the possibility of physically based patterns to flooding it may be possible to markedly improve forecasting (and/or risk quantification) and management of the greatest floods in a region.
- Subject
- flooding; rainfall; hydrology; South East Queensland, Australia
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1404335
- Identifier
- uon:35319
- Identifier
- ISBN:9781925627183
- Language
- eng
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